Previous studies have demonstrated that GDL laws reduce the total number of crash involvements of 16- and 17-year-old drivers. Analyses of novice driver crashes have indicated that 64% involve nighttime crashes or crashes in which a teenaged driver was transporting a teen passenger. This has led to the inclusion in most GDL laws of restrictions on nighttime driving and carrying underage passengers during the early period of solo driving. The enthusiasm of safety advocates and state legislators for GDL laws has increased, and currently, some 44 states have such legislation. Many, however, lack the model nighttime and passenger prohibitions that appear to be important elements for effective laws. Further, it is not clear whether the reported reductions in crashes involving 16- and 17-year-old drivers are the result of GDL laws reducing the number of teenagers seeking licenses or the protective impact of the increased driving supervision required by GDL laws. The objective of this research project is to go beyond the previous GDL studies, all but one of which has been conducted using individual states. By using 16 years of data from the national census of fatal crashes for all 50 states plus DC, we plan to address the following questions: (1) To what extent do GDL laws reduce fatal crash involvements of 16- and 17-year-old drivers? (2) To what extent do nighttime restrictions in GDL laws reduce novice driver fatal crash involvements during nighttime hours and overall? (3) To what extent do passenger limitations reduce novice driver fatal crash involvements while transporting teen passengers? (4) What is the role, if any, that gender and race/ethnicity play in shaping the effects of GDL programs? (5) To what extent do state GDL laws discourage or delay the decision of 16- and 17-year-olds to seek licensing, thereby reducing their exposure to crash involvement. A 51-jurisdiction (50 states plus DC) study of 16- and 17-year-old driver licensing rates and involvements in fatal crashes using 16 years of data (1990 to 2005) from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) will be conducted. To obtain generalized effect-size estimates for the GDL laws, the analyses will be done using a longitudinal panel approach or a "cross-sectional-time series" approach. Two special restriction provisions will be analyzed separately, and if collinearity is not a significant problem, these provisions will be analyzed simultaneously. Appropriate crash subcategories (nighttime crashes and crashes with passengers) will be created to evaluate the two special provisions of GDL laws. The additional fatal crash savings provided by these two restrictions beyond that provided by GDL laws will be determined without such features. Population and license driver records will be used to compute licensing rates and those rates will be related to the presence or absence of a state GDL law. Finally, the potential effects that gender and race/ethnicity have on novice driver fatal crash involvement rates in states with GDL and states without GDL or without the two key components will be analyzed. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE STATEMENT This study will provide guidance to policymakers on the potential benefits of adding nighttime and passenger restriction provisions to an existing graduated driver licensing (GDL) law or the benefit of ensuring that a new GDL law contains such provisions. The role (if any) that gender and race/ethnicity will play in the effectiveness of GDL programs will be determined, and the extent to which GDL produces its beneficial effect on teen crashes by reducing licensing compared to through the protective effect of additional supervised driving. [unreadable] [unreadable] [unreadable] [unreadable] [unreadable] [unreadable]